According to a report from China Times Electronic News, with the sharp decline in MLCC inventory, mainland distributors rushed to replenish MLCC inventory. However, because manufacturers switched their production capacity to 0402, 0201 and other mobile phone materials, the specifications of shortage of materials spread from mobile phone materials to large sizes. For PC and consumer materials such as 0603 and 0805, although mainland distributors are rushing to replenish their inventory, they have no more stock to stock up. The tight spot market is intensifying, which is conducive to the bottoming out of the contract market.

   Mobile phone materials account for nearly 60% of the MLCC market. This wave of MLCC shortages was initiated by mainland-owned mobile phone brand factories. In the fourth quarter, the demand for servers was added, resulting in the expansion of local shortages. The original supply and demand were only tight. Limited to mobile phone materials, it has now spread to large-size MLCCs.

   The passive component factory said that 0402, 0201 and other 104 and 105 specifications are mainly used in mobile phones. Due to the large gap between supply and demand, MLCC manufacturers are guided to transfer production capacity into mobile phone materials. Under the effect of capacity crowding out, specifications above 0402, including 0603 and 0805 The delivery time of other large-sized MLCCs has also begun to be extended. These specifications are mainly used in PCs, power supplies and consumer products, and there are limited manufacturers.

   In addition, according to the original plan, Japanese manufacturers gradually faded out of the field of general-purpose products above 0402, and actively moved into small-size MLCCs, which also directly caused the supply and demand of large-size MLCCs to be tight. However, due to the limited supply side, the specifications above 0402 have been unable to grab the goods, and the required inventory level cannot be replenished. If the supply of materials continues to be tight, the distributors can only go up the price, which will also force The original factory further expressed its position on the issue of rising or not rising prices.

   From the manufacturer's point of view, the top three MLCC factories in the world are Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Yageo, which are affected by the Sino-US trade war. The utilization rate is full, and the three major factories have no intention to increase the utilization rate in a state of short orders and full hands. The industry believes that the control of utilization rate of the first-tier manufacturers is more mature than before, and it is stable to a certain extent. Live MLCC supply and demand.

Passive components, the stock market is blowing wind

   According to recent market reports, end customers have started a wave of buying goods before the Lunar New Year, and the demand for multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) has been upgraded from an urgent order effect to a "normal increase in orders". Due to the wind of price hikes, Chinese distributors will increase MLCCs, which are commonly used specifications such as Yageo and Huaxinke, by 5% to 10%, and the increase will be even greater in the next quarter.

  Industry insiders have analyzed that due to the traditional demand for buying goods during the Christmas season at the end of the year, the supply of passive components is in short supply, and the specifications of 0402 and 0201 used in laptops and mobile phones are tight. The 0603 and 0805 specifications used in servers, motherboards, power supplies, etc. are currently used by passive component factories to increase capacity utilization, but they are still not as good as the emergence of orders. Industry insiders believe that this wave of passive component tightening will continue after the Lunar New Year.

   The market is worried that the common materials of MLCC are still out of stock after the Lunar New Year. The market has reported that stockists have begun to "stock up". However, Taiwanese passive component manufacturers said that they did feel that the client was actively stocking up, but the existing production capacity Orders have been fully supplied, and it is difficult for spot merchants to stock up when demand exceeds supply.

   The supplier said that, in the case of Huaxinke, it received an urgent order in October, thinking it was a short-term demand. However, after receiving a large order for three consecutive months, the passive component factory made every effort to sprint production capacity and increase the utilization rate. About 50-60% in the quarter, it has increased to more than 80% this quarter, but it will still take two to three months to digest these orders. The product inventory days have been less than two months, and the visibility of some orders of mainstream specifications can be as long as one season.

   According to industry analysis, the mainland is a large spot market for MLCC. The spot price of MLCC has shown signs of igniting from sporadic ignition and spreading everywhere. Spot is usually an early indicator of the contract market, and the contract price is motivated by the spot price. It was originally expected to fall by 3 to 5%, but the reversal has stabilized. In particular, the leading manufacturer Yageo has stabilized the decline and has stabilized the decline. The price negotiation in the first quarter of next year is expected to be more conducive to the seller's market.

   Yageo has also recruited production line operators in Taiwan and mainland China to increase production. The legal person believes that Yageo will be able to fully cooperate with customers to ship goods. After the Lunar New Year next year, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase from the current stage. 50% has increased significantly to more than 70%, and the gross profit margin will increase by 2 to 3 percentage points, which will help increase profits.